US missile systems were moved to Jordan amid rising tensions. Iran striking Israel by April 30, 2026 is at 100% YES.

Iran claims control over the Strait of Hormuz and warns of retaliation. Lifting US blockade by May 31 at 79.5% YES.

Iran will prioritize ships paying security fees in the Strait of Hormuz. Fewer than 10 ships transiting April 13-19 at 0.4% ...

The U.S. plans to seize Iranian crude tankers and move missile systems to Jordan. Gulf State military action against Iran by ...

Iran rejected US uranium trade demands, stalling negotiations. Ending enrichment by April 30 now at 28.5% YES.

Kelp DAO bridge hack results in $292M loss from rsETH reserves, marking 2026's largest DeFi exploit and impacting cross-chain ...

The USS Rushmore is now conducting blockade operations in the Arabian Sea. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by June ...

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned an attack that killed a French UNIFIL peacekeeper and wounded three others in ...

Tel Aviv protests against Netanyahu continue, but market odds for him stepping down by June 30 remain low at 5.5% YES.

SARB warns that the Middle East conflict complicates ECB rate cut outlook. 50 bps cut by April 2026 at 0.2% YES.

Iran cites "major differences" with the US after failed peace talks. US-Iran peace deal by April 22 at 19.5% YES.

IRGC fired on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, making UK warship passage unlikely; market at 8.5% YES for sending warships ...